In this week’s recap: home sales lag, retail sales barely improve, new Fed minutes discuss staying the course, and major equity indices advance.
Weekly Economic Update
Presented by John J. Barrios, CFP®, October 22, 2018
HOMES MOVE AT THE SLOWEST PACE IN 3 YEARS
Existing home sales slumped 3.4% in September as the annualized sales rate decelerated to a degree unseen since November 2015. In reporting this, the National Association of Realtors cited the usual factors: climbing mortgage rates, tight inventory, and ascending prices (the median sale price in September was $258,100, up 4.2% in 12 months). The NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, now projects a 1.6% reduction in resales for 2018; economists at Fannie Mae are forecasting a 2.0% retreat. In other real estate news, the Census Bureau said that housing starts fell 5.3% last month, while building permits declined 0.6%.1,2
AGAIN, RETAIL SALES RISE JUST 0.1%
The Census Bureau said that the overall gain for September matched that of August. With fuel and auto sales factored out, retail sales were flat last month. Core sales retreated 0.1%.2
FED MINUTES NOTE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER GRADUAL RATE HIKES
The Federal Reserve released minutes from its September policy meeting Thursday, and they relayed the consensus opinion that a “gradual approach” to tightening monetary policy will be warranted if inflation, labor, and GDP readings keep indicating a thriving economy. Policymakers noted that raising rates too quickly could prompt “an abrupt slowing in the economy and inflation moving below the committee’s objective.” Then again, the minutes also acknowledged “the risk of moving too slowly, which could engender inflation persistently above the objective and possibly contribute to a buildup of financial imbalances.”3
A POSITIVE WEEK FOR EQUITIES
All three major Wall Street benchmarks advanced last week. The S&P 500 registered the smallest gain, adding just 0.02% as it reached 2,767.78. Improving 0.41% for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled at 25,444.34. Rising 1.64% in five trading days, the Nasdaq Composite ended the week at 7,449.03.4
T I P O F T H E W E E K
As a small business grows, a relationship with a good tax professional becomes vital. A thorough tax professional can help you file correctly and see that you take the deductions to which you are legally entitled.
Monday’s earnings calendar lists announcements from Halliburton, Hasbro, Kimberly-Clark, Lennox International, Sify, TD Ameritrade, and Zions Bancorp. | On Tuesday, earnings roll in from 3M, Ameriprise Financial, Avery Dennison, Biogen, Capital One, Caterpillar, Corning, Fifth Third, GATX, Harley-Davidson, JetBlue, Lockheed Martin, McDonald’s, NextEra Energy, Pulte Group, Quest Diagnostics, Regions Financial, Six Flags Entertainment, Texas Instruments, and Verizon. | Wall Street considers September new home sales data and a new Beige Book from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, along with earnings from Aflac, AT&T, Boeing, CoreLogic, Ford Motor Co., Freeport-McMoRan, General Dynamics, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Ingersoll Rand, Microsoft, Norfolk Southern, Northrop Grumman, O’Reilly Auto Parts, Raymond James, Sirius XM Holdings, Smith Micro, Visa, Whirlpool, and W.R. Grace. | Thursday, investors react to earnings from Alaska Air Group, Ally Financial, Alphabet, Altria Group, Amazon, American Airlines, Anheuser-Busch, Briggs & Stratton, Bristol-Myers, Celgene, Chipotle, Comcast, Conoco-Phillips, Discover, Dunkin’ Brands, Expedia, First Solar, Gilead Sciences, GrubHub, Hershey Co., IMAX, Intel, International Paper, Mattel, Merck, Netgear, Nokia, Penske Auto Group, Raytheon, Sherwin-Williams, Snap, Southwest Airlines, Stanley Black & Decker, Stryker, T. Rowe Price, The Hartford, Twitter, Union Pacific, Valero Energy, Verisign, Waste Management, and Western Digital, plus new initial jobless claims numbers, September pending home sales, and a new report on durable goods orders. | The federal government’s first estimate of Q3 GDP arrives Friday along with the final September University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and earnings announcements from AON, Charter Communications, Colgate-Palmolive, Goodyear, Phillips 66, Ryder Systems, and Weyerhaeuser.
Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K
“The way you overcome shyness is to become so wrapped up in something that you forget to be afraid.”
lady bird johnson
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 10/19/184,5,6,7
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
T H E W E E K L Y R I D D L E
It is removed from mines outside the U.S., then encased in wood, never to be released. Even so, it is still used by millions. What is it?
LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: It gives you information and control, and without it, no work can be done – yet it costs you nothing. What is it?
ANSWER: Your brain.
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John Barrios is registered to offer securities through Woodbury Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA & SIPC, and offer advisory services through Woodbury Financial Services, Inc. Barrios Financial Services is not affiliated with Woodbury Financial Services, Inc.
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
1 - marketwatch.com/story/existing-home-sales-slump-to-a-near-3-year-low-as-buyers-back-out-2018-10-19 [10/19/18]
2 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [10/19/18]
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5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F20%2F08&x=0&y=0 [10/19/18] 5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F20%2F08&x=0&y=0 [10/19/18]
5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F20%2F08&x=0&y=0 [10/19/18] 6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/19/18] 7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/19/18]